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A $397 Billion Question

John Evelius||July 6, 2026

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Branding can take many forms. For some companies, a person is the product...

In 2011, Oprah Winfrey ended her namesake show after 25 years. At the time, the show averaged 6 million daily views and $300 million in annual revenue. When Winfrey left the "brand" she started, her followers went with her.

Syndicated network viewership in The Oprah Winfrey Show's regular time slot collapsed to roughly half of what it was. The name on the door wasn't enough... The person had to be in the room, too.

Steve Jobs is the other side of that kind of story. When Apple's (AAPL) board forced him out in 1985, the company he built from a garage nearly went bankrupt...

For 11 years, Apple cycled through CEOs, lost market share, and watched as Microsoft (MSFT) seemingly ran away with the personal computer market. Jobs returned in 1996. Under his lead, projects like the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad made Apple the most valuable brand in the world.

The lesson here is simple... The brand and the man were one and the same.

Both of those stories have the same moral...

When the founder leaves, something irreplaceable goes with them.

Right now, we're watching something similar play out with one of the world's most famous companies...

An Investment Legend Retires

Around 60 years ago, Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), and the investing world has never been the same...

Under Buffett, Berkshire became one of the biggest and most varied companies in the world. Its investments span insurance, railroads, energy, and retail.

Buffett spent six decades building it into one of the most valuable companies on Earth. And in May 2025, Buffett announced that he would retire at the end of the year.

At the beginning of this year, Buffett's chosen successor, Greg Abel, inherited a record $358 billion in cash and a trillion-dollar conglomerate.

As we've seen, when a brand is built around a person, success isn't always sustainable once that person leaves. Now investors are asking one question...

Can Berkshire's identity survive beyond the person who created it?

A lot of investors don't seem to think so. Take a look...

Less than two months after Buffett's announcement, Berkshire's shares dropped roughly 10%... and have mostly traded sideways since.

The stock's "smart money" buying activity from the big Wall Street institutions has been mostly weak over the past 14 months. And BRK-B shares have spent most of that span with weak relative strength versus the S&P 500 Index.

To top it all off, the Power Gauge hasn't rated BRK-B as "bullish" since Buffett's retirement announcement...

What Comes Next

Folks, we're not here to say that Berkshire Hathaway is broken beyond repair. You see, the numbers indicate that Abel's first quarter was competent...

Insurance underwriting profits rose 28.5%. The BNSF Railway business held steady. And Berkshire's cash pile reached a record $397 billion.

That's more than the combined cash reserves of Apple, Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft.

Abel resumed buybacks for the first time in nearly two years – spending $226 million in March. This may seem like a lot. But it amounts to less than 0.1% of the current cash on hand.

In his first six months as CEO, Abel also left his mark on Berkshire's equity portfolio. He exited positions in Amazon, Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and UnitedHealth (UNH). And he tripled Berkshire's stake in Alphabet.

For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, Abel returned Berkshire to airlines – purchasing a $2.65 billion stake in Delta Air Lines. Previously, Buffett vowed to avoid the airline space.

Now, these are genuine departures and advances – not just incremental tweaks. Whether they reflect sharp thinking or unnecessary risk is something the next few years will answer.

And yet, Berkshire's stock hasn't moved much because of all this...

Over the past six months, it has been roughly flat. Meanwhile, the broad market State Street SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY) is up around 9% over the same stretch.

Right now, the Power Gauge gives BRK-B a "neutral -" rating. The central issue is the cash. Most of Berkshire's $397 billion cash position is sitting in U.S. Treasury bills and earns 4% to 5% annually. And it doesn't compound.

This pile was built almost entirely under Buffett's lead. He spent his final years selling equities and stockpiling cash rather than deploying it.

And in his early months at the helm, Abel has shown more willingness to put it to work than Buffett did in his final stretch.

But $397 billion is a lot to disperse. The buybacks and new positions account for a small fraction of what's on the balance sheet.

Folks, Buffett did more than invest...

For more than half a century, he built a brand and a philosophy. This attracted capital, trust, and a unique shareholder base.

Berkshire has always been, at its core, one man's vision.

But this doesn't mean Buffett's successor will fail. After all, Abel has spent 25-plus years inside the company. He understands its mechanics as well as anyone.

But he hasn't yet shown if that's enough...

Can an institution this size keep its identity without the person who supported it for 60 years?

Only time can answer that question. Perhaps Abel will put that $397 billion legacy that Buffett left him to profitable use.

But in the short term, as we wait and see what happens...

The Power Gauge is clear – Berkshire's stock still looks weak right now.

Good investing,

John Evelius

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